"What stabilisation?" he wrote in a note after the figures were published. "The idea the labor market has turned a corner implodes with this report."
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To be sure, the PE business has suffered from overpaying for its buyout picks in the period of ultra-low interest rates, a problem that’s forcing them to hold their portfolio companies for extended periods, and curtailed profits when they’re sold. But until recently, it was the tremendous growth in private debt that far more than offset the slump in their traditional franchise, and accounted for the wondrous performance of their stocks. Now, panic is roiling the funds holding loans to software outfits perceived to be threatened by AI, and investors, especially newly-recruited retail folk, are demanding their money back. “It resembles a run on a bank,” says Matt Swain, co-head of Equity Capital Solutions at investment bank Houlihan Lokey.